how long will the dust plume last?

The sea-level pressure anomaly shows a more clear picture, with the high pressure seen over the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. The common time periods used are 30 days or less for most small laboratory animals and to 60 days for large animals and humans. Tropical storms derive their energy from wet air. As noted by IAEA Director General Hans Blix, "A radiation cloud doesn't know international boundaries. Indoor dust and dander levels will be extremely high. For the video game series, see, United States government guides for fallout protection, atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Learn how and when to remove this template message, 2011 Fukushima accident caused infant deaths, to suggest the same thing occurred after the 1979 Three Mile Island, Selective Shielding of Bone Marrow: An Approach to Protecting Humans from External Gamma Radiation, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). This extremely dry air creates downdrafts of sinking air around a tropical cyclone or one trying to develop, which can weaken the system. Trade winds are the prevailing easterly winds that circle the Earth near the equator. Image of the Day [33] Of the material drawn into the atmosphere, portions of radioactive material will be carried by low altitude winds and deposited in surrounding areas as radioactive dust. [62], "Fallout" redirects here. Fat, Sugar, Salt Youve Been Thinking About Food All Wrong. Fallout accumulates on vegetation, including fruits and vegetables. Companies are diving to the bottom to scoop up metals essential for our EV-driven future. Starting from 1951 people may have gotten exposure, depending on whether they were outside, the weather, and whether they consumed contaminated milk, vegetables or fruit. Despite the abundance of dust thats currently in the atmosphere and moving across the ocean, Texas is too far north to see the dust as frequently as the Caribbean does. Chapter 7 BEHAVIORAL AND NEUROPHYSIOLOGICAL CHANGES WITH EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION, "Sex ratio among offspring of childhood cancer survivors treated with radiotherapy", "Birth defects among the children of atomic-bomb survivors (19481954)", "Nuclear Crises: Hiroshima and Nagasaki cast long shadows over radiation science, "Babies Surveyed for Strontium 90; Ratio to Calcium in Bones Is Discovered to Be Low A survey has shown that pregnant mothers and their unborn children absorb radioactive strontium, as a substitute for calcium, only about 10 per cent of the time", "Dr. Louise Reiss, Who Helped Ban Atomic Testing, Dies at 90", http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/messages/downloadsexceeded.html, "In Baby Teeth, a Test of Fallout; A Long-Shot Search for Nuclear Peril in Molars and Cuspids", "Scientists challenge baby deaths at Three Mile Island", "Backgrounder on Radiation Protection and the "Tooth Fairy" Issue", "In the Shadow of the Mushroom Cloud: Nuclear Testing, Radioactive Fallout, and Damage to U.S. Agriculture, 1945 to 1970", "Use of nuclear weapons and protection of the environment during international armed conflict", "Halving-thickness for various materials", "Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, Third Edition", "Blue Sky and Hot Piles: The Evolution of Radiative Transfer Theory from Atmospheres to Nuclear Reactors", "International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)", "INES: The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale", "Chernobyl | Chernobyl Accident | Chernobyl Disaster - World Nuclear Association", "WHO | Health effects of the Chernobyl accident: an overview", "Environmental Consequences of the Chernobyl Accident and Their Remediation: Twenty Years of Experience", "NRC: Backgrounder on the Three Mile Island Accident", "Fukushima Daiichi Accident - World Nuclear Association", "Health impact in 2016 of the Fukushima Daiichi accident", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nuclear_fallout&oldid=1142197781. As the dust storm crosses the Atlantic, it usually occupies a 3 to 4km (2 to 2.5-mile) thick layer of the atmosphere with its base starting about 1.5km (1 mile) above the surface. The desert regions of northern Africa are estimated to release about 800 million tons of dust each year. We were quite surprised, seeing such high values for all these different parameterswe had never seen that, Mayol-Bracero says. We know, for example, that in many parts of the world that are afflicted with sand and dust storm events, such as the Middle East, we see more asthma and asthma attacks. He advises that people with respiratory conditions stay indoors until the plume passes. This creates a massive layer of hot, dusty air that winds carry across the Atlantic to deliver those nutrients to the ocean and vegetation in South America and the Caribbean. Normally, Saharan dust plumes disperse in the atmosphere and sink into the Atlantic before reaching the Americas. T. Imanaka, S. Fukutani, M. Yamamoto, A. Sakaguchi and M. Hoshi, This page was last edited on 1 March 2023, at 01:35. The Sahara is responsible for 60 tons of dust that go out into the atmosphere every year. Copyright 2022 KWTX. Thats also because of the contrast between wetter air and drier air. At this time they begin exhibiting symptoms of radiation poisoning of sufficient severity to render them totally ineffective. The direction shows the dust cloud is being carried by the prevailing easterly trade winds. The high penetrating power of gamma and neutron radiation, however, easily penetrates the skin and many thin shielding mechanisms to cause cellular degeneration in the stem cells found in bone marrow. [53] The nuclear accident still stands as the only accident in commercial nuclear power that led to radiation-related deaths. Kahn said, "Most people were surprised the plume got as high as it actually did." Of all the pregnant women who were close enough to be exposed to the prompt burst of intense neutron and gamma doses in the two cities, the total number of children born with microcephaly was below 50. Some of the possible delayed consequences of radiation injury, with the rates above the background prevalence, depending on the absorbed dose, include carcinogenesis, cataract formation, chronic radiodermatitis, decreased fertility, and genetic mutations. Actually, belay that, especially if you live in the southern United States. SEE ALSO: [29] The tooth survey, and the expansion of the organization into attempting the same test-ban approach with US nuclear electric power stations as the new target, is likewise detailed and critically labelled as the "Tooth Fairy issue" by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. NASA satellite sensors that track aerosol optical depth observed substantial increases in sunlight-reflecting particles over the region starting on May 29 and continuing to June 6. So this could add insult to injury. [58], Like the Three Mile Island incident, the incident at Fukushima was initially categorized as a Level 5 accident on the INES scale after a tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling of three reactors, which then suffered significant melting in the days that followed. [13] Most people become ill after an exposure to 1 Gy or more. But we do see those impacts up into the Ohio River Valley pretty regularly in our data., So what does that mean for respiratory health, especially with Covid-19 being a respiratory disease? Nuclear fallout is the residual radioactive material propelled into the upper atmosphere following a nuclear blast, so called because it "falls out" of the sky after the explosion and the shock wave has passed. Its the worst Saharan dust event the island has seen in 15, maybe 20 years, says Olga Mayol-Bracero, an atmospheric chemist at the University of Puerto Rico. Farther west, a large, diffuse plume of dust hangs over the Atlantic Ocean, Image of the Day Much of the research done by the NRC sought to move safety systems from a deterministic viewpoint into a new probabilistic approach. But the true power of the trade winds is in their persistence. This could lead to some issues for people with allergies and other respiratory issues. "Present estimates indicate that the plume reached 30 kilometres [above the Earth], making it a very powerful . It originates from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)a mass of very dry, dusty air which forms over the Sahara from late spring to early autumn. Immediately off the coasts of Western Sahara and Mauritania, a series of tan dust plumes blow in predominantly straight lines toward the northwest. The Mining Industry's Next Frontier Is Deep, Deep Under the Sea. All rights reserved. These booklets provided information on how to best survive nuclear fallout. [45] Schools distribution across the nation reflected the density of the population and were often a best building in a community to act as a fallout shelter. In just the same way that meteorologists use forecast models to determine what kind of weather may arrive over the coming days, NASA has created a model, called the Goddard Earth Observing System, that can track and forecast the movement of dust in the atmosphere. The warmer climate would also provide more winds to blow the dust longer distances. Land If enough soot was introduced in the upper atmosphere the planet's ozone layer could potentially be depleted, affecting plant growth and human health. [59] However, after combining the events at the three reactors rather than assessing them individually, the accident was upgraded to an INES Level 7. With the MISR data, Kahn calculated the height of the plume, composed of sub-visible aerosols, to be 1.25 to 1.5 kilometers (0.78 to 0.93 miles), at four sites, as the smoke drifted 70 kilometers (44 miles) downwind on September 12. Fallout from a seawater burst is difficult to remove once it has soaked into porous surfaces because the fission products are present as metallic ions that chemically bond to many surfaces. During this peak period, Saharan dust plumes will often travel all the way to Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast, including as far west as Texas a journey of more than 5,000 miles. Want the best tools to get healthy? This size of particulate matter, lifted to the stratosphere, may take months or years to settle, and may do so anywhere in the world. This effort commonly became known as Civil Defense. This nicely reveals the prevailing easterly trade winds and the high-pressure (clockwise) circulation in the North Atlantic. Acute radiation syndrome (ARS) is the most immediate risk to humans when exposed to ionizing radiation in dosages greater than around 0.1Gy/hr. The Hubble Space Telescope captured the dust plume generated by NASA's DART probe smashing into the asteroid Dimorphos in September 2022. [2] This radioactive dust, usually consisting of fission products mixed with bystanding atoms that are neutron-activated by exposure, is a form of radioactive contamination. Dust plays a major role in Earths climate and biological systems. The aerosol analysis on March 5th, revealed a large dust cloud moving towards the west-southwest, with high dust loading. You've got this warmer air moving across the Atlantic Ocean, which is a cooler ocean surface. Information based on Hubble's work indicates at least three stages of Dimorphos debris evolution. June 23, 2020 at 12:20 p.m. EDT. Fallout radiation decays relatively quickly with time. In winter and spring storms, Saharan dust often ends up fertilizing the nutrient-poor soils of the Amazon rainforest. Radiation in the low energy spectrum (alpha and beta radiation) with minimal penetrating power is unlikely to cause significant damage to internal organs. We can protect the economy from pandemics. Especially now., When you inhale dust, it travels deep into your lungs, triggering an inflammatory immune response. How Old Are You, Really? In this scenario, the fires would create enough soot into the atmosphere to block sunlight, lowering global temperatures by more than one degree Celsius. The number of people living in such conditions is now 92percent, the WHO announced. As clouds of dust from the Sahara desert sweep in across the Atlantic coast, the plume is expected to dampen storm activity but worsen air pollution. [6] The intermediate time scale results from fallout that has been put into the troposphere and ejected by precipitation during the first month. The most prominent dust plume, i.e., the Godzilla dust plume, started to build up along the African coast on 13-15 June. I think it's fantastic. The dust mass/concentration analysis from the NASA GEOS-5 system showed a high dust loading, as the Saharan air layer cloud reached the southeastern United States. Weak pressure gradients across the western United States will not support a strong southerly flow. Dust storms in the summer tend to loft material higher into the atmosphere, allowing plumes to travel thousands of kilometers on high-level winds. Additionally, strong winds are associated with the Saharan dust plume at a typical height of 6,500 to 14,500 feet above the Earth's surface. Faced with extreme drought, Kenyas president approved a controversial new crop for farmers. Its not dust in the wind but its Sahara Desert dust in the sky, Assistant district attorney from Williamson County suspended after DWI wreck in Hewitt. Her air-analyzing instruments were working in real time, detecting the component elements of the desert dust. Death follows at approximately six weeks after exposure, although outcomes may vary. As a result, the nuclear fallout may cause livestock to become ill or die, and if consumed the radioactive material will be passed on to humans. From there, the wind patterns can steer the dust toward parts of the U.S. Satellite imagery detected the dusty air over portions of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, and it's forecast to push into parts of South Florida and the Gulf Coast as far west as Texas late this week and into the weekend. Each plume takes about three days to cross the ocean. Image of the Day [4] Its radioactive characteristics increase the statistical cancer risk. [32] Groundwater would still be safer than surface water supplies and would need to be consumed in smaller doses. Land | Meaning, pronunciation, translations and examples [3] When the nuclear fireball does not reach the ground, this is the only fallout produced. Check out our new Learn Weather page linked below, containing information on all things related to weather in all the seasons! The agency said that with projected global warming researchers worked out that there will be at least a 30 per cent reduction in Saharan dust activity from current levels over the next 20 to 50 years, and a continued decline beyond that.. NASA Study Predicts Less Saharan Dust in Future Winds. The INES scale is composed of seven steps that categorize the nuclear events, ranging from anomalies that must be recorded to improve upon safety measures to serious accidents that require immediate action. Fallout spread throughout Western Europe, with Northern Scandinavia receiving a heavy dose, contaminating reindeer herds in Lapland, and salad greens becoming almost unavailable in France. For subsurface bursts, there is an additional phenomenon present called "base surge". [.] 21st Jun 2021, 12:02 Plumes of dust come off Africa and can make the long trek across the Atlantic, through the Caribbean, and end up here in South Florida and the Gulf. Image is by ADAM Earth explorer platform. The dust has made its way into the Caribbean and by the mid-to-late next week, some of it gets . The image below shows the main near-surface wind directions, with global trade winds in yellow and red colors. "Massive area of Europe under almost continuous dust transport from Sahara & W Eurasia steppe over the coming days in the @CopernicusECMWF Atmosphere Monitoring Service @ECMWFaerosol optical depth forecast from 20 June 00 UTC," Mark Parrington wrote. The main goal of the Price-Anderson Act was to protect the multi-billion-dollar companies overseeing the production of nuclear reactors. On July 26, 2022, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASAs Aqua satellite captured a natural-color image (above) of a fresh plume of dust as it streamed over Western Sahara. Help, My Therapist Is Also an Influencer! For much of July 2022, easterly winds have carried large plumes of Saharan dust over the Atlantic Ocean. Currently, there is a large high-pressure system present in the Atlantic, as seen in the analysis image below. But keep in mind, this is just the first plume we're tracking. By contrast, the lush rainforests to the south of the Sahara have trees that both block the wind and hold on to the soil with their roots, keeping all the muck from taking to the air. "[62] The NRC showed the Soviets the safety guidelines used in the US: capable regulation, safety-minded operations, and effective plant designs. Thats because of gravity: As the plume makes its way across the Atlantic, the larger particles fall out first, leaving the smaller particles to make landfall. "The Saharan Dust that keeps the sky overcast and knocks out or rain chances also pops the humidity and makes it feel like about 100 across South Florida. According to NOAA, the dust plume is usually 2 to 2.5 miles thick, with its base situated about 1 mile above the Earth's surface, so that means it generally sits between 5,000 and 20,000 feet above ground level. Near the eastern coast of South America, over 130 million tons of dust particles can still remain in the air, and roughly around 30 million tons fall to the surface over the Amazon basin. The fine dust particles also reduce the amount of sunlight reaching the ocean, temporarily reducing the heating of the ocean surface, during the passage of the dust storm. When multiple thicknesses are built, the shielding multiplies. Dioxins refer to a group of toxic chemical compounds that can persist in the environment for long periods, according to the World Health Organization . Storm Celia blew the dust plume over Madrid, where it turned the skies a dusty red, and coated surfaces such as tables and cars in desert sand. [45], The US Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in coordination with other agencies concerned with public protection in the aftermath of a nuclear detonation have developed more recent guidance documents that build on the older Civil Defense frameworks. We produced a special graphic from the NASA GEOS data, which shows the dust column mass for May 18th. The deterministic approach sought to foresee all problems before they arose. Late or delayed effects of radiation occur following a wide range of doses and dose rates. and last updated 2022-05-19 15:36:22-04. . The south winds open the door to pull the dust in but its actually an area of low pressure moving through South Texas thats bringing us the hazy skies. [61], Founded in 1974, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was created to set forth international standards for nuclear reactor safety. 5 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE SAHARAN DUST PLUME. [37] The result of a nuclear fallout is incredibly detrimental to human survival and the biosphere. Drier air, associated with the Saharan air layer is marked in the red box, as it has less moisture and less precipitable water. Each plume of dust differs in size, thickness and concentration, but we usually see dust outbreaks push off the African coast every 3-5 days during the mid-June to mid-August period. The dust has travelled more than 1,500 miles to the UK from Algeria and Morocco over the last two days. One million species are at risk of extinction, but a handful of charismatic creatures get all the hype. #ImageOfTheDayWhile a Saharan #dust plume is about to reach Florida, another one is on its way to #Scandinavia according to the forecasts of @CopernicusECMWF #CAMS@CopernicusEU #Sentinel3 view of the ~300 km long dust cloud closing in on #Formentera and #Ibiza pic.twitter.com/4He0cjOleD. Even in the midst of the Cold War, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission sought to improve the safety of Soviet nuclear reactors. [clarification needed] Civilian dose rates in peacetime range from 30 to 100 Gy per year. Put the plastic bag where others will not touch it and keep it until authorities tell you what to do with it. [59] However, the fallout from the Fukushima accident had a minimal impact on the surrounding population. It is first more contained in the tropical regions but eventually reaches further to the west and southwest. The next day, the same sensor acquired an image (below) of clouds swirling through dusty skies downwind of the Portuguese island of Madeira. Nuclear fallout can occur due to a number of different sources. New Tests Want to Tell You. While this eye-catching plume made headlines, NASA scientists, using a combination of satellite data . [31], Groundwater supplies such as aquifers would however remain unpolluted initially in the event of a nuclear fallout. What we typically see is that the concentrations are highest in the southeast, more towards Florida, says Jenny Hand, senior research scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere. The dust cloud over Madrid on Tuesday. For subsurface land bursts, the surge is made up of small solid particles, but it still behaves like a fluid. Meteorological conditions greatly influence fallout, particularly local fallout. In the center of the picture, intermixed with clouds, is the swirling dust storm, nearly the size of the United States. Saharan dust plume, seen by the NOAA-20 satellite on June 17, 2020. Credit: NOAA. Natural-color satellite imagery from May 30 to June 6 showed the storms progression across the water. The mass of the shielding material required to properly protect the entire body from high energy radiation would make functional movement essentially impossible. The current wave of dusty skies should be around through the end of the day today and will then pull away Wednesday. A high-pressure system in the subtropical Atlantic can send the dust into the Caribbean and wind patterns can steer the dust toward parts of the U.S. The agency warns that driving in a dust storm is never safe, and should always be avoided if possible. As the nuclear energy sector continues to grow, the international rhetoric surrounding nuclear warfare intensifies, and the ever-present threat of radioactive materials falling into the hands of dangerous people persists, many scientists are working hard to find the best way to protect human organs from the harmful effects of high energy radiation. For example, a system to replace the escaping steam of a cooling system with cooling water could prevent reactor fuel from melting. This year's dust plume is thicker than normal, the concentration of particles in Puerto Rico are the highest in decades. 6:41 a.m. 20th June 2021 - south Florida. [50] However, because of the limited experience in nuclear reactor technology, engineers had a difficult time calculating the potential risk of released radiation. [47] These shelters should contain water, food, tools, and a method for dealing with human waste. Instead, according to NOAA, it is expected that the dust will remain between 5,000 and 20,000 feet above . Land In 1986, the disaster at Chernobyl was evidence that international nuclear reactor safety was not to be taken lightly. Under special meteorological conditions, such as a local rain shower that originates above the radioactive cloud, limited areas of heavy contamination just downwind of a nuclear blast may be formed. [49] One step to prevent nuclear reactor accidents was the Price-Anderson Act. The current surge of dust is on the strong. But how can these large dust storms travel so far to the west and even reach the far northern parts of the United States and Canada? In stronger winds, fallout travels faster but takes the same time to descend, so although it covers a larger path, it is more spread out or diluted. In this case, the vortices were formed by air masses moving around Madeira. "The new WHO model shows countries where the air pollution danger spots are, and provides a baseline for monitoring progress in combatting it," said Dr Flavia Bustreo, Assistant Director General at WHO. It reveals a strong plume of dust, reaching the southern United States this weekend. It has about 50% less moisture than the typical tropical atmosphere. If a shelter could only be partially underground, it was recommended to mound over that shelter with as much dirt as possible. Sept. 8, 2011 -- Among the lasting images of 9/11 are images of nearly everyone and everything in the immediate . At the same time, a mile above the desert a 2-mile-thick mass of hot, dry air called the Saharan Air Layer, or SAL, has formed. How does Saharan dust make it all the way across an ocean? In the context of air quality, we care about Brownian motion mainly when considering impaction (e.g., on water droplets in a PM wet scrubber ) or . This image shows two different areas of dust plume activity. These west-to-east-blowing trade winds pick up hundreds of millions of tons of SAL sand and blow . It shows the dust cloud stagnating, and spreading over much of the southern coastal region of the United States. So despite not seeing any large events in the near future, we can expect more such events (and larger) in the next few weeks. Yesterday, it arrived in Texas and Louisiana. The plume moves over the North Atlantic every three to five days, and it usually occupies a stretch of atmosphere up to 2.5 miles thick, with the base starting about a mile above the ground. [45] It was recommended to keep one or two tables in the room if possible to use as a food-serving station. Air sampling stations throughout the US gather this particulate material for scientists to study. Also, the current plume is particularly dense, and its not alone: The African desert is now releasing another thats working its way across the Atlantic and will arrive in a few days. Related: Behold the 1st images of DART's wild asteroid crash! Plumes of dust recently reached Florida, Texas, and other southern U.S. states in mid-May 2022. Too much stuff is going on here. Typically the dust is most prolific in June trough early August and is one reason the tropics are relatively tame in those months. The plume moves over the North Atlantic every three to five days, and it usually occupies a stretch of atmosphere up to 2.5 miles thick, with the base starting about a mile above the ground. [56], The nuclear meltdown at Three Mile Island in 1979 was categorized as a Level 5 accident on the INES scale because of the "severe damage to the reactor core" and the radiation leak caused by the incident. These dust storms move over the tropical North Atlantic. Over time the groundwater could become contaminated with fallout particles, and would remain contaminated for over 10 years after a nuclear engagement. (You can watch the dusts progress from a satellite with this neat tool. Thats quiet, but things can turn around in a blink of an eye with just one hurricane, he said. Reports that the JWST killed the reigning cosmological model have been exaggerated. (ECW Press, 2022; with Canadian astronaut Dave Williams), a book about space medicine. A large portion of these emissions is carried to the west over the Atlantic Ocean. The authors studied the ash in the atmosphere following the Mount Kelud . Winds pick up an estimated 100 million tons of dust from the Sahara Desert each year, and a sizable portion of it blows out over the North Atlantic Ocean. The setup between those twothe hot to the north and the cool, moist to the southsets up a wind circulation that can become very strong, and it can actually scour the surface of the desert, says Steven Miller, deputy director of the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere at Colorado State University, which is monitoring the plumes. A nuclear weapon detonated in the air, called an air burst, produces less fallout than a comparable explosion near the ground. The breakthroughs and innovations that we uncover lead to new ways of thinking, new connections, and new industries. Even if you struggle with air quality changes, the dust should be far enough up in the atmosphere to be of minimal consequence. Location of Saharan dust plume Saturday. The dust is a part of the Saharan Air Layer, or SAL for short, and is usually about 2 miles thick in the atmosphere starting about a mile above the surface. The effect of the rays passing through the dust will create beautiful pink, orange, and red colors. A large amount of short-lived isotopes such as 97Zr are present in bomb fallout. NASA scientists, using a combination of satellite data and computer models, predict that Africa's annual dust plumes will actually shrink to a 20,000-year minimum over the next century as a result of climate change and ocean warming. #Monsoon2K21. Not only does it contain dry air, but there's typically a layer of high wind shear associated with it. About 60million tons of the Sahara Deserts dust floats into the atmosphere annually, according to NASA. The Saharan air layer is usually drier than your usual tropical air, so we can track that on the precipitable water in the image below. It is currently covering a large portion of the tropical Atlantic, heading for the Gulf of Mexico, and will reach the southern United States this weekend. Nearly half of all dust in the atmosphere comes from around Lake Chad and is picked up by the easterly trade winds. The satellite imagery on June 25, 2020, revealed a dense dust cloud moving into the southern United States from the western Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds routinely loft sand and dust into the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere. An animation of images acquired by NASA satellites shows the Saharan dust plume blowing across the Atlantic between May 30 and June 6, 2022. Marine food chains are more vulnerable to the nuclear fallout and the effects of soot in the atmosphere. Experts say these plumes can dump up to 60 million tons of dust into the atmosphere. The cone shape began forming about 17 hours after impact.

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how long will the dust plume last?